HOW CAN TOURISM SURVIVE THIS FUTURE?

One of the few studies on the impact of climate change on Florida Tourism concluded that the industry could lose nearly $40 billion dollars annually by mid-century if the state continues its current path of denial, delay, and incrementalism. And that study was done long before the IPCC issued their most recent dire climate projections.

Land of Stubborn Optimists

But if there is one truth about Florida, it is a land of stubborn opportunists.

Since Henry Flagler convinced rich northerners that the mosquito-infested swamps of Palm Beach were the ultimate vacation destination, Florida’s tourism entrepreneurs have concocted some amazing schemes to lure outsiders here. So, we can assume that the hardiest of them will still manufacture postcard-perfect panoramas worthy of Instagram, even as the state sinks into the sea. But what would it take to survive in a hot, wet Florida future?

The choices would be stark. Hospitality businesses could:

• Harden infrastructure at enormous costs. A move that would likely price out all but the richest visitors.
• Spend heavily on marketing to over-hype reduced offerings. Hope that you get enough one-time visitors to stave off bankruptcy.
• Pivot to fresh forms of tourism that protect the planet and respect local communities. This tactic would come at the cost of significantly limiting the number of visitors.

FLORIDA THE SUBMERGED STATE

Some of the new attractions we can imagine waiting for Laura and her family include:

MIAMI/SOUTH FLORIDA

After spending billions to harden its infrastructure, this international playground for the rich and famous is filled with massive pumping stations, forty-foot seawalls blocking the view of the ocean and condos that are half submerged but somehow still filled with rocking clubs. South Beach now promotes itself as the home of Disaster Luxury.

CENTRAL FLORIDA

The behemoths of Florida tourism based in Orlando stay afloat by spending billions on hardening their infrastructure. Of course, those costs get passed on to their guests. By mid-century, the domed theme parks have become the exclusive retreat for super rich families. Few of the second-tier attractions can afford the costs of hardening. Orlando’s once crowded I-drive is now spotted with faded facades of dying businesses. The decline in tourism has had a surprising impact on the rest of the city. Without the pressure of serving millions of visitors, the city has shifted resources to community development and continues on its path toward becoming a center of green excellence.

GAINESVILLE GREENBELT

The spine of the state from north of Orlando to Lake City has long been home to smaller attractions more attuned to the natural environment. This commitment to protecting green spaces is severely challenged by the massive influx of climate migrants moving into the “safest” part of the state. Most of the area’s springs, once famous for their pristine waters, are increasingly unfit for recreation. These pressures prompt a growing resistance to outsiders, especially tourists. Still, a few of the most innovative eco-adventures are prototyping new models of regenerative tourism.

WEST COAST

Treasure Island is largely underwater. The flood of seniors moving to Sarasota and St. Pete in search of the fountain of youth has slowed to a trickle. Some ingenious entrepreneurs saw the need to rehouse the seniors flooded out of their beach front condos as a perfect opportunity. The result was the development of floating communities that promise to recreate the Florida retiree dream, for those who can don’t mind the occasional bout of seasickness. Ana Maria Island has become the first spot in the state to be granted eco-community status by the United Nations. The community enforces serious restrictions on the number of visitors allowed. Those that get in must take part in the community’s ongoing efforts to rewild its coastline.

PANHANDLE

After being repeatedly battered by cat 5 and cat 6 hurricanes, the panhandle, from Carrabelle to Navarre, has become the ghost coast. Local governments, abandoned by the state and private insurers, lacked the funds to rebuild. What beaches remain are littered with the skeletons of destroyed condos and the spiny legs that once held beach houses above the tide. The few tourist companies working in this area offer Mad Max style adventures where the rules are few and the risks many.

THE FUTURE COULD BE DIFFERENT

It’s too late to avoid the impacts of climate change. Even if we eliminated all fossil fuels tomorrow (impossible) and spent billions in environmental restoration (unlikely) Florida will be less inviting in the coming decades. But we still have choices about how we adapt to these changes. If we act quickly, we can create a Florida where people and planet thrive. We can still imagine a future where a regenerative and sustainable tourism industry contributes to the well-being of communities while working to repair the damage caused by a century of exploitation.

OUR BETTER FUTURE BEGINS WITH YOU

Reimagining the future of tourism in Florida requires an open conversation about all our needs, desires, and wants. It means facing the realities of climate chaos and acknowledging the role tourism plays in our economy. But as long as Florida’s business and government leaders remain focused on heads in beds, that dialogue won’t happen. It’s up to us to raise our voices and demand that we address the challenges of climate change and over-tourism. There are lots of ways you can help spark this conversation. You could write your local and state politicians. You could join protest efforts like Extinction Rebellion or FridaysForFuture. Run for office or support like-minded candidates. Create your own future art projects like this one.